📊 Live Model Performance

Tracking predictions vs actual results since launch

Races tracked
4878
Our pick won
23.5%
1148 / 4878
Our predicted winner placed in the top 3
57.3%
2793 / 4878
The race winner featured in our predicted top 3
53.9%
Days pending
6

ℹī¸ Pre-race rating reflects card composition (race types, field sizes) and model confidence — not a prediction of individual races. Labels can cluster in streaks during unfavourable periods; April and January are historically the model's weakest months.

Date Pre-Race Rating Winners / Races Win % Place %
2026-07-31 Thin Day 5 / 49 10.2% 53.1%
2026-07-30 Good Day 8 / 37 21.6% 56.8%
2026-07-29 Good Day 9 / 32 28.1% 71.9%
2026-07-28 Good Day 7 / 34 20.6% 52.9%
2026-07-27 Thin Day 4 / 35 11.4% 51.4%
2026-07-26 Mixed Day 5 / 15 33.3% 66.7%
2026-07-25 Mixed Day 13 / 50 26.0% 50.0%
2026-07-24 Thin Day 8 / 54 14.8% 33.3%
2026-07-23 Good Day 11 / 50 22.0% 46.0%
2026-07-22 Good Day 6 / 39 15.4% 41.0%
2026-07-21 Good Day 5 / 28 17.9% 53.6%
2026-07-20 Mixed Day 10 / 31 32.3% 58.1%
2026-07-19 Good Day 6 / 28 21.4% 67.9%
2026-07-18 Mixed Day 9 / 56 16.1% 50.0%
2026-07-17 Good Day 12 / 53 22.6% 50.9%
2026-07-16 Good Day 11 / 47 23.4% 63.8%
2026-07-15 Good Day 9 / 38 23.7% 57.9%
2026-07-14 Thin Day 13 / 40 32.5% 57.5%
2026-07-13 Mixed Day 13 / 36 36.1% 69.4%
2026-07-12 Good Day 8 / 28 28.6% 53.6%
2026-07-11 Thin Day 15 / 57 26.3% 50.9%
2026-07-10 Thin Day 7 / 49 14.3% 44.9%
2026-07-09 Thin Day 5 / 40 12.5% 55.0%
2026-07-08 Mixed Day 9 / 33 27.3% 39.4%
2026-07-07 Risky Day 4 / 35 11.4% 51.4%
2026-07-06 Risky Day 8 / 35 22.9% 60.0%
2026-07-05 Risky Day 7 / 22 31.8% 72.7%
2026-07-04 Thin Day 16 / 56 28.6% 39.3%
2026-07-03 Mixed Day 7 / 48 14.6% 45.8%
2026-07-02 Mixed Day 12 / 47 25.5% 53.2%
2026-07-01 Risky Day 6 / 36 16.7% 41.7%
2026-06-30 Thin Day 9 / 46 19.6% 58.7%
2026-06-29 Good Day 9 / 34 26.5% 44.1%
2026-06-28 Good Day 6 / 30 20.0% 53.3%
2026-06-27 Good Day 10 / 51 19.6% 60.8%
2026-06-26 Good Day 13 / 48 27.1% 58.3%
2026-06-25 Good Day 3 / 33 9.1% 57.6%
2026-06-24 Risky Day 2 / 13 15.4% 61.5%
2026-06-23 Mixed Day 1 / 27 3.7% 40.7%
2026-06-22 Risky Day 9 / 33 27.3% 57.6%
2026-06-21 Thin Day 4 / 20 20.0% 65.0%
2026-06-20 Thin Day 8 / 48 16.7% 35.4%
2026-06-19 Thin Day 13 / 56 23.2% 50.0%
2026-06-18 Thin Day 11 / 43 25.6% 55.8%
2026-06-17 Mixed Day 6 / 35 17.1% 51.4%
2026-06-16 Mixed Day 6 / 33 18.2% 42.4%
2026-06-15 Risky Day 7 / 37 18.9% 48.6%
2026-06-14 Mixed Day 5 / 29 17.2% 44.8%
2026-06-13 Risky Day 21 / 58 36.2% 55.2%
2026-06-12 Mixed Day 13 / 58 22.4% 51.7%
2026-06-11 Thin Day 12 / 40 30.0% 50.0%
2026-06-10 Mixed Day 7 / 34 20.6% 52.9%
2026-06-09 Risky Day 1 / 33 3.0% 27.3%
2026-06-08 Thin Day 10 / 37 27.0% 56.8%
2026-06-07 Mixed Day 7 / 30 23.3% 53.3%
2026-06-06 Thin Day 14 / 58 24.1% 44.8%
2026-06-05 Risky Day 17 / 57 29.8% 47.4%
2026-06-04 Mixed Day 12 / 43 27.9% 53.5%
2026-06-03 Good Day 10 / 33 30.3% 66.7%
2026-06-02 Mixed Day 4 / 27 14.8% 59.3%
2026-06-01 Risky Day 11 / 42 26.2% 45.2%
2026-05-31 Good Day 6 / 34 17.6% 52.9%
2026-05-30 Thin Day 17 / 57 29.8% 64.9%
2026-05-29 Thin Day 9 / 42 21.4% 54.8%
2026-05-28 Mixed Day 13 / 47 27.7% 59.6%
2026-05-27 Good Day 8 / 42 19.0% 54.8%
2026-05-26 Good Day 13 / 48 27.1% 56.2%
2026-05-25 Good Day 8 / 41 19.5% 58.5%
2026-05-24 Good Day 9 / 29 31.0% 55.2%
2026-05-23 Thin Day 15 / 56 26.8% 48.2%
2026-05-22 Thin Day 14 / 43 32.6% 55.8%
2026-05-21 Thin Day 11 / 44 25.0% 52.3%
2026-05-20 Thin Day 8 / 40 20.0% 57.5%
2026-05-19 Thin Day 10 / 42 23.8% 54.8%
2026-05-18 Risky Day 11 / 42 26.2% 54.8%
2026-05-17 Thin Day 9 / 30 30.0% 60.0%
2026-05-16 Risky Day 8 / 60 13.3% 40.0%
2026-05-15 Mixed Day 15 / 52 28.8% 44.2%
2026-05-14 Thin Day 9 / 35 25.7% 57.1%
2026-05-13 Mixed Day 14 / 42 33.3% 66.7%
2026-05-12 Good Day 14 / 39 35.9% 61.5%
2026-05-11 Risky Day 11 / 42 26.2% 54.8%
2026-05-10 Good Day 6 / 22 27.3% 63.6%
2026-05-09 Thin Day 16 / 64 25.0% 48.4%
2026-05-08 Risky Day 9 / 49 18.4% 55.1%
2026-05-07 Thin Day 12 / 41 29.3% 51.2%
2026-05-06 Mixed Day 12 / 34 35.3% 52.9%
2026-05-05 Thin Day 11 / 32 34.4% 65.6%
2026-05-04 Risky Day 7 / 59 11.9% 45.8%
2026-05-03 Good Day 9 / 36 25.0% 44.4%
2026-05-02 Mixed Day 13 / 53 24.5% 69.8%
2026-05-01 Good Day 8 / 43 18.6% 60.5%
2026-04-30 Thin Day 11 / 43 25.6% 53.5%
2026-04-29 Thin Day 13 / 38 34.2% 60.5%
2026-04-28 Thin Day 7 / 35 20.0% 48.6%
2026-04-27 Risky Day 7 / 28 25.0% 50.0%
2026-04-26 Risky Day 5 / 22 22.7% 40.9%
2026-04-25 Mixed Day 15 / 59 25.4% 54.2%
2026-04-24 Good Day 10 / 51 19.6% 60.8%
2026-04-23 Thin Day 10 / 39 25.6% 51.3%
2026-04-22 Mixed Day 13 / 34 38.2% 70.6%
2026-04-21 Risky Day 10 / 29 34.5% 51.7%
2026-04-20 Thin Day 10 / 37 27.0% 48.6%
2026-04-19 Mixed Day 6 / 29 20.7% 48.3%
2026-04-18 Thin Day 9 / 45 20.0% 48.9%
2026-04-17 Thin Day 8 / 35 22.9% 42.9%
2026-04-16 Good Day 5 / 29 17.2% 51.7%
2026-04-15 Mixed Day 9 / 38 23.7% 52.6%
2026-04-14 Good Day 10 / 35 28.6% 51.4%
2026-04-13 Mixed Day 13 / 29 44.8% 65.5%
2026-04-12 Mixed Day 11 / 36 30.6% 52.8%
2026-04-11 Good Day 11 / 44 25.0% 43.2%
2026-04-10 Good Day 10 / 43 23.3% 62.8%
2026-04-09 Good Day 10 / 35 28.6% 57.1%
2026-04-08 Risky Day 13 / 38 34.2% 60.5%
2026-04-07 Good Day 2 / 23 8.7% 47.8%
2026-04-06 Good Day 10 / 52 19.2% 53.8%
2026-04-05 Good Day 10 / 44 22.7% 61.4%
2026-04-04 Thin Day 11 / 55 20.0% 43.6%
2026-04-03 Risky Day 2 / 22 9.1% 27.3%
2026-04-02 Risky Day 5 / 27 18.5% 59.3%
2026-04-01 Good Day 9 / 33 27.3% 54.5%
2026-03-31 Thin Day 9 / 27 33.3% 63.0%
Going Races Accuracy
Soft To Heavy 7 57.1%
Firm 47 34.0%
Good To Soft 308 25.6%
Good To Yielding 221 24.9%
Good To Firm 1168 24.6%
Good 2169 23.9%
Soft 191 21.5%
Standard 450 21.3%
Yielding 127 18.9%
Standard To Slow 105 14.3%
Yielding To Soft 48 12.5%
Standard / Slow 22 4.5%
Type Races Accuracy
NH Flat 110 29.1%
Hurdle 854 24.2%
Chase 467 24.0%
Flat 3447 23.1%
Race Class Races Accuracy
Novice 474 33.3%
Maiden 660 29.5%
NH Flat 110 29.1%
Conditions/Stakes 505 28.3%
Novice Handicap 118 21.2%
Handicap 3011 19.8%
Distance Races Accuracy
Sprint (≤6f) 1130 21.2%
7-8f 1120 24.3%
9-10f 547 21.2%
11-12f 386 24.4%
13-16f 480 28.1%
Staying (17f+) 1215 24.0%
Field Size Races Accuracy
2-5 runners 719 32.3%
6-8 runners 1671 28.2%
9-12 runners 1659 19.8%
13+ runners 829 14.0%
Course Races Accuracy
Hereford 26 42.3%
Ludlow 12 41.7%
Huntingdon 24 37.5%
Salisbury 60 36.7%
Redcar 68 35.3%
Kelso 29 34.5%
Yarmouth 104 33.7%
Bangor-on-Dee 33 33.3%
Hexham 49 32.7%
Catterick 65 32.3%
Doncaster 93 32.3%
Gowran Park 59 32.2%
Plumpton 28 32.1%
Wetherby 22 31.8%
Perth 57 31.6%
Killarney 59 30.5%
Worcester 66 30.3%
York 76 30.3%
Pontefract 74 29.7%
Bath 99 29.3%
Ffos Las 70 28.6%
Cartmel 46 28.3%
Sligo 29 27.6%
Musselburgh 69 27.5%
Limerick 70 27.1%
Carlisle 70 27.1%
Stratford 53 26.4%
Down Royal 43 25.6%
Naas 43 25.6%
Leicester 83 25.3%
Sedgefield 12 25.0%
Hamilton 76 25.0%
Newbury 81 24.7%
Newmarket (July) 49 24.5%
Southwell (AW) 127 24.4%
Leopardstown 74 24.3%
Fontwell 37 24.3%
Newton Abbot 70 24.3%
Fakenham 25 24.0%
Windsor 109 23.9%
Listowel 21 23.8%
Brighton 38 23.7%
Haydock 47 23.4%
Lingfield (AW) 77 23.4%
Chepstow 86 23.3%
Taunton 13 23.1%
Exeter 13 23.1%
Dundalk (AW) 35 22.9%
Newcastle 22 22.7%
Navan 31 22.6%
Tramore 36 22.2%
Lingfield 77 22.1%
Goodwood 83 21.7%
Newcastle (AW) 70 21.4%
Sandown 70 21.4%
Nottingham 108 21.3%
Market Rasen 53 20.8%
Ripon 73 20.5%
Warwick 39 20.5%
Ayr 78 20.5%
Punchestown 64 20.3%
Chester 74 20.3%
Curragh 90 20.0%
Wincanton 15 20.0%
Bellewstown 35 20.0%
Downpatrick 36 19.4%
Thirsk 72 19.4%
Cork 75 18.7%
Galway 38 18.4%
Roscommon 39 17.9%
Aintree 29 17.2%
Epsom Downs 6 16.7%
Uttoxeter 72 16.7%
Fairyhouse 61 16.4%
Newmarket 87 16.1%
Wolverhampton (AW) 170 15.9%
Beverley 86 15.1%
Southwell 27 14.8%
Kempton (AW) 90 14.4%
Clonmel 29 13.8%
Kilbeggan 45 13.3%
Ascot 83 12.0%
Wexford 60 10.0%
Epsom 41 9.8%
Ballinrobe 45 8.9%

When our top pick has X% predicted probability, how often does it actually win?

Predicted range Races Avg predicted Actual win %
Under 15% 1544 12.1% 14.4%
15-20% 1388 17.4% 22.6%
20-25% 981 22.2% 27.3%
25-30% 512 27.1% 31.2%
30-40% 363 33.9% 39.4%
40-50% 77 43.9% 41.6%
50%+ 13 54.1% 61.5%